Todd writes: Perhaps Todd, if you have the right candidate. But Kerry couldn’t pull it off, and I suspect that Hillary won’t have a prayer. On the other hand, if the Dems nominate Zell Miller in 2008, many of us red state folk may turn blue.

Best I can tell, the birth rate correlation is a fact. Additionally, there’s a very high correlation between red states and the number of years people are married. So it seems to me that people who stay married and have offspring currently tend to perceive that Republicans better reflect their family values—what is best for the survival and future of their offspring. And single people and those who don't stay married long obviously tend to have different family values.