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Originally Posted by Fred H.
You’ve probably heard of the Monty Hall problem, where there is a prize behind one of three doors and you guess which door—Monty then eliminates one of the two remaining doors (that obviously doesn’t have the prize) and asks if you now want to switch your choice to the other remaining door. A lot of people will strongly and emotionally argue that it doesn’t matter, that it’s a 50/50 chance whether you stay with your first choice or switch. However, many of those same people will, if they truly attempt to understand the statistics, eventually see that in fact their odds of winning will increase from 33% to 67% if they switch.
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You have to add the fact that Monty must ALWAYS open a door; the show itself had him opening one some times and not others. That may have confused people but, you're right, some people can still not see it. And I'm glad that you, too, see that it works both ways.