Carey, I generally agree with all of that.
OTOH the concept of in-group and out-group is a much more complex idea than shirts vs. skins or red state - blue state.
People typically belong to several social collectives. One person could be a member of the Rotary Club, the Presbyterian Church, and the Republican party - and gay. The behaviors seen as moral in each of those seemingly compatible groups are not necessarily the same.
When you say
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Social collectives in which members make a strong distinction regarding within vs. between group rules tend to replace social collectives that do not.
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. . . do you you think those other groups will generally come to see homosexuality as moral - or will gays and other members of those groups who don't see homosexuality as immoral eventually leave?
Margaret